设备动态风险评估与预测研究

Research on assessment and prediction of equipment dynamic risk

工业系统运行中的设备,受系统状态和设备工况的影响,其失效风险具有动态属性。因此,在认识设备失效风险的可能性和严重性的同时,还必须认识和研究设备在系统寿命周期内失效风险的动态属性。设备失效的动态风险因素可以归纳为设备自身失效率变化、设备外部载荷变化、系统结构变化以及功能变化引起的失效后果严重度变化,依此提出了动态风险模型。利用该模型对江苏某储气库水溶造腔系统进行实证研究,获得注水泵失效动态风险图,明确了造腔初期、中后期和注气排卤三个典型阶段的注水泵失效风险波动状况以及波动原因。实证研究说明,运用该分析模型可以推断系统运行周期内设备失效风险的变化状态和趋势,从而适时、有效地控制风险。

The running equipment of industrial system may be effected by the conditions of the system and the operating state itself, so the risk of equipment failure was of dynamic attributes. In the same time of researching its possibility and severity of the failure risk, it is necessary to understand and research the dynamic attributes of equipment failure in the system life cycle. In this article, dynamic risk factors of equipment failure were summed up in the change of failure rate, the change of external load of equipment effect to the possibility of risk. Then and the changes of system structure and system function effect to the severity of risk. Then and so put forward a dynamic risk model was developed. The model was used for cavity-made water system of Jintan underground gas storage. The map of pump dynamic failure risk was drawn out, then the situation and reasons of the risk in three typical stages of early, middle, late of model may predict the status making storage and injection gas were recognized. Empirical studies showed that the and trends of equipment failure risk in the system running cycle, so that the risk may be control effectively and timely.