中国国债风险状况的实证分析及模型研究

Positive Analysis and Research on China's Risk Status of National Debt

国债发行已成为中央政府弥补财政赤字的最主要手段,而赤字率和债务负担率之间的联动性又会直接造成财政总量风险的累积,影响国债政策的可持续性。本文通过对我国国债风险状况的实证考察,建立"赤字—债务"均衡模型以及评估公共部门偿债能力模型,并给出相关政策效应的最终解释。

National debt has became the main method of making good financial deficit by central government. Linkage between the rate of deficit and the rate gross risk, and effecting on national debt policy debt, this article builds ＂deficit - debt＂ model of national debt burden, directly lead to the cumulation of financial consistency. By the demonstration research to Chinese government , and presents final explanation of correlated policy＇s effection.