调整利息税率对中国居民人均消费影响的实证分析--基于1985-2008年的经验数据

The effect of adjusting the rate of interest income taxation on the per capita consumption in China——An Empirical Analysis using 1985-2008 data

本文通过所构建的居民消费效用函数模型,得到利息税率调整引起居民人均消费的变化量,并利用中国1985-2008年的数据估计出模型中的参数。通过实证分析发现:第一,调整利息税率对我国人均消费产生的收入效应大于替代效应;第二,调整利息税率对城镇和农村居民的人均消费影响的效应不同:提高利息税率对农村居民人均消费产生的总效应相对较大,而降低利息税率对城镇居民人均消费产生的总效应相对较大;第三,城镇居民消费时间偏好、储蓄效用因子大于农村居民的消费时间偏好和储蓄效用因子。

This paper constructs the model of consumer utility function and obtains the changes of per capita consumption which are caused by adjusting interest tax rate, and we finally estimate the model parameters using 1985 - 2008 data. Our empirical analysis shows three conclusions. First, adjusting the interest tax rate accrues the income effect on the per capita consumption is greater than the substitution effect in China. Second, to urban and rural residents, the effect of the adjustment of interest tax rate on per capita consumption is different. Increasing interest tax rate has a relatively larger total effect on urban residents, while lowering interest tax rate has a relatively larger total effect on rural residents. Third, both the time preference of consumption and the utility factor of saving of urban residents are greater than rural residents.