生育政策与出生性别比差异分析

Family Planning Policies and the Imbalance in Sex Eatio at Birth

本文把性别选择和生育政策作为影响出生性别比的两个主要因素,通过定量的方式分析了性别选择和生育政策各自对出生性别比偏高的影响。研究表明,第二胎成功性别选择率越高,出生性别比就越偏高,两种生育政策下的出生性别比绝对差值就越大,相对差值较稳定。当性别选择率一定时,出生性别比本身值越高,两种生育政策下的出生性别比绝对差值就越大,相对差值也较稳定。

In this paper, I choose sex selection and family planning policies as two main factors that influence sex ratio at birth. Through quantitative analysis, I analyze the influence of sex selection and family planning policies on the imbalance in sex ratio at birth. This analysis shows that the higher the success rate of sex selection of the second-baby, the higher the sex ratio at birth and the bigger the absolute margin between two kinds of family planning policies, but the relative margin between them is stable. When sex selection is at a certain rate, the absolute margin between the two kinds of family planning policies is bigger, so is sex ratio at birth. But the relative margin between them is still stable.