摘要
Initial value sensitivity in technology diffusion, an important problem for firms＇ decision making such as the timing and target market chosen for new technology or product entering the market, has long been limited by the research methodology and tool. Based on the network extension of Bass model, this paper proposes a stochastic threshold model and uses computer simulation to empirically examine three propositions on initial value sensitivity in technology diffusion process. Our findings suggest that diffusion extent is sensitive to not only the number of initial adopters but also their positions in social network, and the variance of customers＇ initial assessment as well, which can be detailed as follows： （1） the degree of technology diffusion exhibits highly positive relation to initial adopter quantity, in particular, when the quantity of initial adopters is small, diffusion extent is very sensitive; （2） diffusion extent is sensitive to the positions of initial adopters; （3） in addition, the variance of customers＇ initial evaluation displays strong negative relation to the final diffusion degree in that the larger variance, the lower of diffusion extent.
