对不完备样本下风险分析方法的改进及应用——以湖南省农村种植业水灾为例

THE IMPROVEMENT AND APPLICATION OF INCOMPLETE SAMPLE RISK ANALYSIS

对自然灾害的风险分析，核心是对某一指标进行概率密度估计。本文首先对不完备样本的密度估计方法——信息扩散方法进行了修正，通过计算机仿真证实了修正后的模型提高了估计精度。在此基础上，应用修正后的模型对湖南省农村种植业水灾进行了风险分析，建立了自然灾害风险评估模型，并通过绘制风险等值线图，直观地展示了全省农村种植业的水灾风险分布，以及随着灾害程度增大的风险的空间变化趋势。

he main part of natural disaster risk analysis is probablity density estimation of some index.This paper puts forward a method to improve the density estimation of incomplete samples——information diffusion method.The new method is confirmed by the computer simulation that it improved the precision of the density estimation.Then the model is used to analyze the flood risk in Hunan Province.The result of the flood risk assessment is expressed in the contour map which shows the risk distribution and its space change tendency with the aggravation of the disaster.