关联度分析法和模糊综合评判法在泥石流沟谷危险度划分中的应用——以北京市北部山区怀柔、密云两县为例

APPLICATIONS OF RELATIVITY ANALYSIS METHOD AND FUZZY SYNTHETICAL ASSESSMENT METHOD IN CLASSIFICATION OF DANGEROUS DEGREE OF DEBRIS FLOW

在选取沟谷纵比降、山坡坡度、沟谷沉积物厚度、山坡堆积物厚度、流域相对高差、每平方米节理数、最大粒径、沟宽等８个因子为泥石流沟谷危险度划分的主要因子的基础上，运用关联度分析法和模糊综合评判法对北京市北部山区重点泥石流沟进行了危险度划分。结果表明，两种方法所划分的危险度与实际情况基本符合。其中，模糊综合评判法较关联度分析法更加理想一些。

ased on the field surveys and synthetical analyses,8 factors including vertical slope of creek,hillside slope,deposit thickness in creek,thickness of materials in mountain slope,valley relative height,joint numbers per square meter,the biggest gravel size and creek width are chosen as the main factors in dangerous degree classification of debris flow,particulary the vertical slope of creek is the most important factor.After the weight and rand of every factor are given the dangerous degrees of debris flows in the main creeks in the northern mountains in Beijing are classified by using the relativity analysis method and the fuzzy synthetical assessment method.The results show that the dangerous degrees given by the two methods are conform on the whole with the actual situations and the fuzzy synthetical assessment is better than the related analysis.