区域人类活动与耕地资源系统动力学演化分析

Dynamic Evolution of Relationship between Regional Humanity Activities and Agricultural Land Resources

以区域尺度作为视角建立人类活动与耕地资源系统的非线性动力学模式,讨论区域人口-耕地-经济系统平衡态的稳定性和动力学演化趋势。结果表明:净增耕地数量的增加可以扩充有限的耕地资源数量以及提高区域可供养的人口数量,促进区域人口-耕地-经济系统向可持续方向发展;过度的农地非农化、低效率耕地资源利用水平、耕地资源质量退化、净增耕地数量为负等人类活动,都将导致区域人口-耕地-经济系统灾变;为保障粮食安全和实现可持续发展,应提高耕地资源承载力和耕地利用水平;提高经济发展水平,控制耕地非农化水平,可促使耕地资源持续利用。

Human activities and agricultural land resources are a complicated nonlinear system. This paper attempts to establish a nonlinear model of human activities and agricultural land resources in regional scale, discussing the stability and dynamic trend when the system is in a state of equilibrium. The results of the study shows that net increase of regional agricultural land resources can enhance the amount of land resources and sustain more population, so it will boost the system to the direction of continual development, that excessive agriculture land conversion and low efficient use of land resources would lead to severe non-periodic change of the system, that it is very important to improve the level of land supporting capability and land use in order to ensure food supply security and sustainable development because of land conversion and economic development, and that it will improve sustainable land use by enhancing the economic development and controlling the conversion of agricultural land resources.