安徽省耕地资源变化及驱动力研究

A Study of Cultivited Land Resource Change and Its Driving Forces in Anhui Province

利用安徽省近10年来的耕地序列和人均耕地序列数据以及相关社会经济资料,宏观分析了"耕地动态平衡"政策实施以来耕地资源的时空动态变化规律。用灰色关联度法,定量研究了耕地变化的驱动因子,揭示耕地变化的驱动机制。研究表明:安徽省1997年以来耕地面积和人均耕地面积的变化分三个阶段,1997-2002年的缓慢减少期、2003-2004年的快速减少期和2005-2006年的增长期;耕地年均变化速率和人均耕地年均变化速率存在明显的空间差异,据此将全省分为5个不同的耕地资源变化区:耕地重心发生了转移,大体是稳定在淮北平原西北部;在近10年的不同阶段,影响耕地变化的驱动因子的主次地位发生了变化,其中,年末总人口一直是影响耕地变化的最主要的驱动因子,2003年以来非农业人口对耕地变化的影响不断增强。

According to the sequence data of cultivated land and related socio-economic data of Anhui Province in the last 10 years, this paper conducts a macro-analysis of dynamic changes of time and space of the cultivated land since the implementation of the ＂dynamic balance of farmland＂ policy. By applying gray correlation, the paper studies quantitatively the driving factors of the cultivated land changes and reveals the driving mechanism of cultivated land change. The research shows that the change of land area and per capita land area of Anhui Province since 1997 has occurred at three stages, that is, slowly-reduced period （ 1997- 2002）, rapidly-reduced period （2003-2004）, and growing period （2005-2006）. There is an obvious difference of average annual change rate of farmland and the average annual per capita change rate of Anhui Province in the space. According to these differences, Anhui Province is divided into five different areas of cultivated land change areas. Since 1997 ,the barycenter of the c ultivated land in Anhui Province had been transferd, but generally stable in the north-west of Jianghuai plain. In the different stages of recent 10 years, the primary and secondary status of the cultivated land driving factor in Anhui Province has been changed. The total amount of population is the most important driving factor. Since 2003, the impact of non-agricultural population has been increasing.