埋地管道震害的多因素灰色关联分析

GREY INCIDENCE ANALYSIS OF FACTORS AFFECTING DAMAGE OF UNDERGROUND PIPELINES

根据多次历史地震埋地管道震害调查资料的统计和定性分析，应用灰色系统理论，以管道震害率作为参考数列，以地震烈度、场地类型、管道材料、接口构造和管径尺寸作为比较数列，对埋地管道震害率进行了多因素灰色关联分析，排出了关联序．研究结果客观地揭示出震害率与各影响因素之间的相互关系，为进一步研究理地管道的震害预测方法提供了科学依据．

Based on the statistic and qualitative analysis on investigation data of seismicdamage of underground pipelines in historical earthquakes, the grey incidence analysis of thefactors affecting the earthquake damage probability of the underground pipelines is tnadewith the grey system theory. In the analysis, the damage probability of pipeline, intensitylevel of earthquake, types of site, pipe materials, structures of jointed points and dimensionof pipe diameters are used as referring series and comparing series respectively. The order ofincidence is also obtained. The results objectively reveal the relations between the damageprobability and the factors affecting it and provide a scientific basis for further research onthe prediction methods of damage of underground pipelines.