我国城镇居民增收对农业发展农民增收的实证分析

Empirical Analysis on Contribution of Urban Resident Income Growth to Agriculture Development and Peasants Income Increase

文章以我国1978年-2007年的数据,运用协整分析、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数研究了城镇居民收入对农民收入的影响。研究发现:城镇居民收入的增加无论在短期和长期对农民收入都有正向作用,这表明,虽然城镇居民收入增长中存在削减农民收入的"切蛋糕效应",但更重要的是其带动农民收入增加的"做蛋糕效应"。另外,农民收入都是影响自身未来收入的重要变量,这意味着,当农民收入达到一定水平后,便能形成一个促进自身收入持续增加的一个自我增进机制;相反,如果农民收入水平低,或者一个意外冲击造成其贫困,这就可能使该居民被"锁定"贫困。

Based on the data during the years 1978 -2006, using cointegration analysis, Granger causality tests and impulse response function, this article studied the influence of urban resident income on the peasant income. It＇ s found that the income of urban resi- dents had positive effect on the income of peasant in short-term and long-term, which indicated that though income increase of towners has ＂cake-cutting＂effect on peasant income, the more important is that it had a ＂cake-making＂effect to drive the income increase of peasants. In addition, peasant income is an important variation affecting the future income of their own, which means that a self-promo- ting mechanism of keeping income increasing can be formed when peasant income reaches a certain level; on the contrary, when peasant income is at a low level, or the peasant falls into poverty by an accident, then he may be locked in a poverty.