再现“中国因素”

China’s Demand Back Again

由于存在中国巨大的刚性需求,尽管目前仍是经济低速期,但今年开年以来,国际大宗原材料价格开始了波澜壮阔的反弹。

Although global economic woes continue to have an impact, the world market has rebounded to some extent. During the f irst four months of 2009, the price of copper has doubled globally, and the prices of rubber and zinc have risen by 80%. China’s demand has contributed. In March 2009, China imported 1,634 million tons of crude oil and 52.08 million tons of steel ore, and its copper import volume increased by 138% year on year. The demand comes from the package of RMB 4 trillion that China has decided to use by 2010 to cushion its economy from too sharp a slowdown while overseas markets continue to shrink. But government spending alone is far from suff icient to consume all the products made from those materials imported before. So f irms resume or increase their output only to f ind that many products are inevitably kept in stock. This may make the V-curve of current economic growth into a W-curve. To avoid this, the government will have to 'buy' the newly manufactured products. The Chinese government will do its utmost to absorb production.