摘要
在综合分析米脂县农地承载力系统结构、关系的基础上,以1998年为起始年建立系统动力学模型,根据米脂县社会经济发展现状及未来规划,设定了3种不同的方案和3种营养标准,模拟了米脂县2008-2028年农地人口承载力趋势,通过各方案比较,得出了较优的方案,最后提出了提高该地区农地承载力的政策建议。
Based on comprehensive analysis of farmland carrying capacity system, the paper establishes system dynamics model and the initial year of the model is 1998. According to the status quo of social economy and development programming, three schemes and three nutrition level are set up. The model predicts the population carrying capacity between 2008 and 2018. Analzying on the results of the model, the paper chooses the optimization scheme. Several proposals are put forward to coodinate the economy and environment and to improve farmland carrying capacity.
出处
《水土保持研究》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第3期187-191,共5页
Research of Soil and Water Conservation
基金
国家自然科学基金“黄土丘陵区退耕区域农业生态经济系统耦合过程及其模式研究”(40771082)
“十一五”国家科技支撑项目“黄土高原水土流失综合治理技术研究”(2006BAD09B10)
关键词
农地承载力
系统动力学
米脂县
farmland carrying capacity
system dynamics
Mizhi County
