基于隶属度模型的绵阳市水资源承载力研究

Study of Water Resources Carrying Capacity of Mianyang City Using Mathematical Model of Membership

根据绵阳市水资源的具体现状,通过隶属度—情景分析数学模型对其进行分析得出,2002年绵阳市水资源的承载力为0.224,为可承载,但接近于准不可承载。根据情景预测模型的计算,以目前情况的发展,到2010年,水资源承载力将进入准不可承载,甚至不可承载阶段。根据数学模型分析的结果,提出了关于绵阳市发展的相关政策方面的建议。

The actual situation of the water resource in Mianyang City was introduced and analysis using the mathematic model was made in the article. The result was that the carrying capacity of the water resource in Mianyang City was temporarily well in 2002, but was on the line; estimation was made based on the economic development of Mianyang. And the result showed that by the 2010, carrying capacity was going to be bad and be ditticult to comeback. As conclusion, some advice based on the result was given in the article.