1976—2005年唐山地区降水变化规律及干旱预测

Precipitation Variation and Drought Prediction in Tangshan City From 1976 to 2005

利用唐山市1976—2005年各县年降水序列,分析了该市降水的空间分布规律和时间变化特点。采用灰色系统的灾变预测方法,对各县分别建立了GM(1,1)模型,进行未来25年唐山市各站的干旱年预测。利用残差检验、后验差检验和关联度检验对各模型分别进行了精度检验。结果表明,预测模型精度较高,可以对唐山市各县未来的干旱年进行预测,从而为科学决策提供依据。

Based on the observational data of 11 meteorological stations from 1976 to 2005, the spatial and temporal distributions for precipitation are analysed. GM（1,1） forecast models have been performed for 11 meteorological stations by means of gray system the- ory, which are used to predict the drought occurrences of 25 years in the furture. The precisions are proved by residual test, posterior test and relational coefficient test. The result showes that the precisions are too high that they can be used to predict the year of drought. So these can provide accordings for the scientific decision.