经济发达地区城镇居民预防性储蓄动机研究——基于微观数据的实证分析

Study for Precautionary Savings Motive of Urban Residents in the Developed Areas——The Empirical Study Based on Micro-data

利用嘶的预防性储蓄模型和浙江某市2003—2004年的城镇居民住户调查数据，估计了预防性储蓄动机和流动性约束对居民消费的影响，并在选择工具变量时兼顾了总量风险和特质风险。估计结果表明，相对谨慎系数仅为1．132，而教育、医疗费用上涨过快导致的潜在流动性约束是经济发达地区城镇居民家庭储蓄率持续上升的重要原因。

In this paper, Dynan＇s precautionary saving model and data collected a certain city in Zhejiang Province households survey from 2003 to 2004 are used to estimate the influence of precautionary saving motive and liquidity constraint on the consumption , and variables concerned with both aggregate risk and idosyncratic risk are chosen as instruments. The estimated result shows that relative prudence coefficient amounts only 1.132 while potential liquidity constraint caused by rapid increasing of education and medical care costs play more important role on the constant rising of urban households＇ saving rate in recent years.