台风诱发暴潮极端潮位的预测方法

Prediction Method of Extreme Sea Level Induced by Typhoon

以杭州湾为例,根据水文站历史潮位资料,采用改进的灰色马尔可夫预测模型对台风诱发暴潮的极端潮位进行预测。同时采用复合极值分布理论对可能出现的极端潮位进行概率预测,使预测结果更为接近真实数值。

Taking Hangzhou Bay as an example and according to the historical sea level data of hydrological stations, the paper proposes a improved grey-markov chain model to predict extreme sea level induced by typhoon. At the same time, it uses compound extreme value distribution（CEVD） theory to make possibility prediction for probable extreme sea level. In this way, prediction results are close to the real data.