我国服务业外商直接投资贸易效应的实证分析

The Empirical Analysis of the Trade Effect of the Utilization of FDI in Chinese Service Industry

基于1984—2006年我国服务贸易进出口和服务业外商直接投资数据,本文采用协整理论、误差修正模型和格兰杰因果检验等方法,分析了服务业外商直接投资对我国服务贸易的影响。结果表明,服务业外商直接投资与我国服务贸易进出口存在协整关系,服务贸易出口和服务业利用外商直接投资之间存在双向因果关系,服务贸易进口是服务部门利用外商直接投资的原因,服务业外商直接投资不是我国服务贸易进口变化的原因。因此,本文的结论是:服务业外商直接投资对服务贸易的替代或促进作用不明显,利用外商直接投资有效地发展我国服务贸易的作用未完全显现出来。

Based on the data of import and export in service trade and FDI in Chinese service industry from 1984--2006, using co - integration analysis, error correction model and granger causality test, this paper analyzes the effect of the utilization of FDI in Chinese service industry on trade in service. The result shows that FDI in Chinese service industry and trade in service have a cointegration relation, the export of trade in service and FDI in Chinese service industry have a two -way causality relation. Therefore, FDI in Chinese service industry does not have an obvious contribution to the trade in service, the utilization of FDI in Chinese service industry has not completely fostered the development of the trade in service.