欧元vs美元:解决一个历史的难题

Euro vs US Dollar: Solution to a Historical Difficulty

Kenen(2002)对美元持续保持最主要的国际货币地位提供了一个很好的统计角度的综述。虽然欧元自1999年1月1日正式流通以来极其成功地统一了欧洲的金融市场,它并没有像很多人所预期的那样,显著地取代美元在国际外汇市场上的中心地位。这个难题包含了两个方面的问题。第一,在战后的美元体系中,为什么在欧洲会形成一个独立的区域性货币?第二,虽然欧洲货币联盟(EMU)直至1999年都很成功,为什么欧元在欧洲以外的地区取代美元作为国际货币的作用却非常有限?通过考虑Kenen提供的证据,我试图对以上两个方面提供解释。

Elsewhere in this volume, Kenen （2002） provides an excellent statistical overview of the continued dominance of the dollar as ＂the＂international currency. Although the Euro has been extremely successful in unifying financial markets within Europe since its introduction in January 1, 1999, it has not significantly displaced the dollar＇s central role in the world＇s foreign exchange markets as many had anticipated. This puzzle has a dual historical aspect. First, why under the postwar dollar standard did the evolution of a separate regional money in Europe eventually become necessary？ Second, given the success of European Monetary Union （EMU） by 1999, why has the new Euro done surprisingly little to displace the dollar＇s role as international money outside of Europe？ After considering Kenen＇s evidence, I will try to explain both aspects of this puzzle.