地方政府借款的潜在风险分析

Analysis on Potential Risk of Local Governments' Debt

本文从地方政府多种关系冲突和商业银行对地方政府贷款风险认识不足入手,揭示地方政府借款存在的潜在风险,并力图通过对地方政府借款主体的合法性、借款用途的合理性、借款资金贷后划转规范性、第一和第二还款来源的稳定性和可靠性、担保措施的可信性和长效性等风险的剖析,呼吁地方政府和商业银行在刺激内需热潮中,保持清醒头脑,控制住地方政府的借款额度,防止还款来源资金的断裂。

There are plenty of potential risks for local governments to borrow money from commercial banks if there are conflicts between local governments＇ realizing their achievements and maintaining their credit. The paper shows the potential risks of local governments＇ debt from the perspective of analyzing various conflicts and commercial banks＇ insufficient understanding of potential risk of local governments＇ debt.Through analyzing legitimacy, reasonableness of borrowing money, normalization of using money,reliability of the first and second repayment sources,credibility and long effectiveness of credit measures,the paper appeals that local governments and commercial banks should keep their judgment,control their credit and prevent bad debts in today＇s situation of stimulating domestic demands.