就汶川地震失报探讨地震预报的科学思路——再论李四光地震预报思想

Pondering over the scientific thinking of earthquake prediction from the miss report of Wenchuan Earthquake—re-discussing Li Siguang's earthquake prediction thought

根据我国多年地震监测预报工作的经验和问题,就地震发生的机理、预报研究的基本途径以及汶川地震发生机理和失报问题做了探讨;分析了地震短临预报前兆、测震学应用的局限性及地应力转移和追踪;提出了今后地震预报工作的9点建议。

According to the experience and problems of seismic monitoring and earthquake prediction tor many years in China, it was discussed the earthquake mechanism, preliminary methods for prediction research and the mechanism and miss report of Wenchuan Earthquake, analyzed prediction precursor of short-term and impend- ing earthquake, seismometry application limitation and ground stress transfer and track, and put forward 9 suggestions for future earthquake prediction.