新疆兵团农业结构调整与农业经济增长关系研究——基于协整理论与VAR模型分析

Studies on the Interactions of Agricultural Structure Adjustment and Agricultural Economic Growth of the Xinjiang Production and Construction Crops——Based on Cointegration Analysis and VAR Model

该文基于协整理论和VAR模型,构建了1980-2006年兵团农业结构调整和农业经济增长相互作用的动态模型,并在此基础上使用Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数以及预测方差分解对两者之间的互动关系进行了探讨。研究结果表明:兵团农业结构调整是农业经济增长的Granger原因,但反向因果关系不成立。农业经济增长与农业结构调整之间存在密切的长期关系,且农业结构调整对农业经济增长的影响较大但时滞较长。因此,为促进农业经济增长,兵团应当相应制定长期政策加速农业结构调整。

In this paper we made a model to analyze the dynamic interactions of structure adjustment and economic growth of agriculture in the Xinjiang production and construction crops, based on cointegration and VAR. Also we performed Granger Causality Test, Impulse Responses Functions, and Variance Decomposition Analysis, and detected that agricultural structure adjustment Granger caused agricultural economic growth. There exists a long-term relationship between them, but more a longer delay. There-fore, in order to promote agricultural economic growth, we should develop the corresponding agricultural structure adjustments of long-standing policy .