陕西省城镇居民收入结构的灰色关联分析与趋势预测

Grey Relation Analysis and Trend Forecasting of Income Structure of Urban Residents of Shaanxi Province

应用灰色关联分析方法,分两个历史阶段对比研究了不同收入来源对陕西城镇居民人均可支配收入的影响,结果表明,居民收入结构不合理和发展不平衡现象较为严重,工薪收入和转移性收入是影响陕西居民收入的主要因素,并且其重要程度有进一步增强的趋势,其他来源的收入对居民收入增长有明显的抑制作用.最后,通过建立GM(1,1)新陈代谢模型群,对陕西城镇居民未来几年的人均可支配收入和工薪收入进行了预测.

Grey Relation Analysis method is applied by two historical stages to study the impact that different income source makes on the per capital disposable income of urban residents in Shaanxi province. The result indicates that it is serious of the irrationality and imbalance in income structure of residents. Salary income and transfer income is the main influence factor with growing significance while other income has evident negative effect on the residents＇ income promotion. At last, based on the metabolism GM （1,1） model group the per capital disposable income and salary income of urban residents of Shaanxi province is forecasted in future years.