基于模糊聚类的丰满上游流域降雨径流变化趋势分析

Analysis of Changing Trend of Rainfall and Runoff in Upstream of Fengman Watershed Based on Fuzzy Clustering

针对以往研究人类活动对径流的影响时并没有考虑降雨量级、强度和类型等作用问题,本文以丰满上游受人类活动影响较大的Ⅱ区为研究对象,采用模糊聚类的方法对1942～2005年年降雨序列聚类分析,研究不同时间分布类型的降雨下人类活动对流域水文效应的影响。结果表明,人类活动的影响是造成流域径流减少的主要原因;并且降雨量越小,年内分布越分散,流域径流受人类活动影响越剧烈。

In previous studies, precipitation level, intensity and type were always ignored when evaluating the human activities effect on the runoff. Accordance with these defects, hydrological effects of human activities under different precipitation conditions have been studied in this paper, through analysis on the rainfall sequence from the year of 1942 to 2005. The upstream of Fengman watershed was selected as the study area. In this area, human activities were very strong. The results show that human activity is the main factor of runoff reduction. The less rainfall and more dispersed distribution, the stronger influence to the runoff from the human activities.