欧盟新成员国会不会发生区域性货币危机——与1997年东南亚的比较分析

On the Possibility of Regional Currency Crisis in EU New Member States——A Comparative Analysis between them and South-Eastern Asia in 1997

当前中东欧地区的欧盟新成员国已经深受金融危机的影响,通过与1997年东南亚国家汇率制度的比较可以发现,欧盟新成员国发生区域性货币危机的可能性较小,但部分国家的汇率制度在防范货币危机方面处于被动地位。在经常账户方面,欧盟新成员国的贸易赤字主要集中在欧盟内部,经常账户引发货币危机的可能性同样较小。从这两方面来看,中东欧的欧盟新成员国不会发生区域性货币危机,但需要欧盟给予强有力的外部支持。

At present, European Union （EU） new member states in Central and East Europe have been strongly affected by the financial crisis. Compared with the exchange rate system of Southeast Asia in 1997, this paper suggests that the possibility of regional currency crisis in EU new member states is slight. However, some of them are in disadvantage status in terms of preventing a currency crisis. As far aa current account is concerned, the trade deficit of EU new member states has mainly occurred inside EU. Thus chances of currency crisis caused by current account are slim too. This paper concludes that regional currency crisis will not occur in EU new member states on the condition that EU gives them strong external support.