2008年汛期国家精细化温度指导预报在河南区域的检验

Verification of National Refined Temperature Guidance Forecast of Henan in 2008 Flood Season

要：对国家气象中心2008年6—8月下发的精细化温度指导预报在河南区域的绝对平均误差和分级预报准确率进行了分析，结果发现：总体上24—96h预报效果好于120-168h；各月最低温度的预报效果均好于最高温度；7、8月份最高、最低温度预报效果好于6月；平原的预报效果好于山区。与河南省气象台温度指导预报结果对比发现：最高气温预报评分普遍比省台低6-13分。最低气温预报评分6月份的0—24h和24-48h比省台低2—3分，48—72h比省台高2分以上；7月份预报评分均比省台高6分以上；8月份预报评分比省台低6分以上。

The paper analyzes the mean absolute error and grading forecast accuracy of refine temperature guidance forecast of Henan region distributed by National Meteorological Centre in June to August of 2008. The results show the forecast skill of 24h to 96h is better than that of 120h to 168h; the monthly forecast skill of minimum temperature is better than that of maximum temperature; the monthly forecast skill of temperature in July and August is better than that in June; the forecast skill in plain is better than that in mountain area. Compared with the forecasting skill of temperature of Henan Provincial Meteorological Observatory, the score of maximum temperature of national refined forecast is commonly 6 to i3 points less than that of Henan Provincial Meteorological Observatory. The national forecast of Oh to 24h and 24h to 48h is 2 to 3 points less than Henan Provincial Meteorological Observatory in June, national forecast of 48h to 72h is 2 more points more than Henan Provincial Meteorological Observatory in June; national forecast is 6 more points more than Henan Provincial Meteorological Observatory in July; national forecast is 6 more points less than Henan Provincial Meteorological Observatory in August.