对外开放对经济增长贡献的实证分析——以唐山市为例

An Empirical Analysis of the Contribution of Opening up to Economic Growth

本文以对外开放与经济增长相关理论和方法为基础,从国际开放和区际开放的视角出发,借助单位根检验、误差修正模型和格兰杰因果检验等计量工具,以唐山市为例来分析国际开放与区际开放对经济增长的贡献。本文论证了唐山市对外开放对经济增长具有显著的正效应,唐山市经济增长的动力主要来自区际开放,国际开放对唐山市经济增长的贡献相对较低。建议通过打破地区分割,实现区际协调发展;调整产业结构,转变外贸增长方式等几个方面实现经济的发展。本文试图从一个新的视角构建模型来探索研究一个城市或地区对外开放与经济增长的关系。

This article is based on the theory of opening up and the economic growth. From an international opening and inter-district opening view, this article takes Tangshan as an example to analyze contribution of the international opening and inter-district opening to economic growth,using unit root test,error correction model and Granger causality test and other measurement tools. This article demonstrates the opening up of the Tangshan has significant positive effect on economic growth. The power of economic growth comes mainly from the inter-district opening. It is relatively low that international opening of Tangshan contributions to the economic growth. It is suggested that the city can realize the economical development through breaking the local division, realizing the coordinated development of inter-district, adjusting the industrial structure,changing the growth mode of foreign trade. This paper attempts to build models to study the relationship between opening up and economic growth from a new perspective.