“弱币”的升值危机:新兴市场经验对中国的启示

The Soft Currency's Appreciation Crisis

如果考虑货币的不平等,人民币大规模升值冲击可以抽象地称为"弱币"的升值危机。本文对24个新兴市场进行了实证考察,结果表明:"弱币"升值危机是存在且不容忽视的,但所谓"成功"的"弱币"升值危机并不多见;"弱币"升值危机对经济的影响可能是收缩性的;相比于贬值危机,"弱币"升值危机面对更为积极的货币当局干预;"弱币"升值危机成因中含有"高储蓄两难"特征。最后本文对缓解人民币升值投机提出了政策建议。

Abstractly, the large-scale RMB appreciation speculation can be called as a soft currency＇s appreciation crisis （briefly called as a SCAC）. This paper reviewed 24 emerging economies, which displays, the SCAC exists and seldom suc ceeds; the SCAC leads to contractive influences~ the SCAC faces more decisive resistance; the SCAC has the characteristics of ＂the conflicted virtues＂ . Finally, this paper presented some proposals for the RMB appreciation speculation.