美国货币政策的国际传递效应及其影响的实证研究

Empirical Research on the International Spillover Effects of US Monetary Policy and Their Impacts

本文实证研究发现美国货币政策对各国产出水平、净出口和物价具有国际传递效应,其中对各国物价的影响还具有同步效应。结构化脉冲响应分析表明,美国货币政策可在基本不损害美国经济增长的情况下改善美国的贸易收支,并对其他国家的经济增长产生负面影响,对中国贸易顺差波动影响尤为显著。因此必须关注美国货币政策的道德风险,谨防美国采取损人利己行为所带来的全球性冲击,并从货币政策的角度来挖掘平衡中国贸易收支的手段和方法。

From empirical research, it showed that there were international Spillover effects for the US monetary policy to output level, net exports and price levels of each country, and the effect on price of each country was of synchronous. The structural impulse response analysis showed that the US monetary policy could improve US income and payment without damaging US economy growth basically, but the shocks affected the economy growth of the rest of the world negatively. Besides these findings, the US monetary policy shocks affect China＇s trade surplus fluctuations strongly.