我国社会养老保险制度覆盖面的深度分析

An Profound Analysis on the Coverage of China's Social Endowment Insurance System

本文使用国际通行的"覆盖面"指标,利用我国的数据,得出2006年我国社会养老保险制度覆盖面的数据。回归分析表明,经济发展水平对我国社会养老保险制度的覆盖面具有显著性的影响。人均GDP时间序列数据和中等收入国家截面数据的比较分析表明,我国社会养老保险制度的覆盖面滞后于经济增长。社会养老保险制度的覆盖面还受到农业经济和非正规部门经济在国民经济中的比重、社会保障模式、行政管理能力等因素的影响。提出扩大社会养老保险制度覆盖面的国际经验和我国可选的政策建议。

Using the international indicator of coverage and based on China＇s data, the coverage rate of China＇s social endowment insurance system in 2006 is calculated in the paper. The regression analysis shows that economic development level has significant effect on the coverage rate of social endowment insurance system, and a comparative analysis between timeseries data of GDP per capita and section data of medium income countries shows that coverage rate of social endowment insurance system lags behind economic growth in China. The proportion of agricultural economy and informal economy sectors take in overall national economy, the mode of social security and administrative ability are the other factors affecting social endowment insurance system＇s coverage. The paper introduces international experience in promoting the coverage rate and feasible policy advice.