军队行政干部仿真系统的设计与应用

Design and Application of Army Administrative Manpower Simulation System

为了科学、合理地制定干部队伍调控计划,调整我军行政干部队伍结构,使之尽快趋于最佳状态,并找出军队行政干部队伍发展的趋势和规律,从而为干部政策的制定提供科学依据,为相关业务部门的决策提供科学参考。系统选用OPL优化软件作为底层平台,进行补充量测算,运用Matlab数理统计工具箱,对纷繁复杂的军队干部队伍历史数据进行归类、筛选、统计和分析,利用蒙特卡罗方法对军队行政干部队伍进行仿真,并对行政干部结构中的年龄结构、任职时间结构、平均年龄和平均服役时间结构进行了分析。最后给出了应用该仿真系统对某单位从2008年至2027年20年间的行政干部队伍结构进行预测并对该单位中的某一职级的干部队伍结构进行分析。仿真实例证明了该系统可使用性,可以为干部工作的管理实施提供一体化、定量化调控,还可以为干部政策制定的合理性进行预测论证,提供科学的辅助决策手段。

For the sake of drawing up a plan reasonably to adjust our army administrative manpower structure, an army administrative manpower simulation system is proposed. The system chooses OPL software as base platform to carry out accession calculation, and uses Mat lab Mathematical Statistics tool box to analyse numerous and complicated cadre history data. Based on Monte Carlo method, this paper designs a system to simulate army administrative manpower, and analyses administration manpower structure, such as the age structure, the post time structure, the average age structure, and so on. Finally, an application example is designed and realized to forecast army administrative manpower structure from 2008 to 2027. Analysis results of one of the cadre grade are provided to prove the effective of the method. This system proved to be practical.