基于优化决策的非传统海外油气项目评价的动态规划模型研究

Optimization Decision-Based DP Model Study of Nontraditional Foreign Oil & Gas Project Evaluation

近年来,在国际石油/天然气合作领域中,对已探明或正在开发的油田的开发和生产作业项目,因其不涉及石油勘探,故称其为非传统油气项目合同,研究这类合同项目的评估也引起了极大关注。基于投资者增加推迟投资选择从而增加管理柔性的实物期权决策法,被引入石油勘探开发投资的经济评价中。但实物期权决策法对油气项目评估的实践意义,由于问题过于复杂,目前尚未建立起具有可操作性的评估模型;实物期权方法虽凸显出净现值方法的某些局限性,但是仍不足以动摇净现值方法的基础地位。在净现值法基础上,利用动态规划实现跨期优化,解决了非传统油气项目合同经济评价中的原油价格、自然递减率等外生参数的选择,实现了资金等约束条件下的内生变量——每年钻井数的优化,不仅得到多阶段决策问题的最优策略(最优开发方案),基于此基础上的净现值计算结果也实现了对非传统海外油气项目的评估。

In recent years, in international oil ＆ gas cooperation, there has appeared a kind of contract known as nontraditional oil ＆ gas project contract, which concerns developing oil ＆ gas fields or reservoirs proven rather than oil ＆ gas exploration activities. With the asset evaluation evolvement, real option that is based on adding investor＇s option and management flexibility, is introduced into the economic evaluation of oil ＆ gas exploration and exploitation, and practiced hotly. But nontraditional oil ＆ gas project real option evaluation model that may be exercised is not set forth because of the complexity of objective problems. Although the real option method reveals some weakness of net present value method, it cant replace N. P. V. In this paper, multiple period optimization of nontraditional oil ＆ gas project is studied based on N. P. V. with dynamic programming. How to select the exogenous parameters as oil price, oil out- put natural step-down, endogenetic variable are solved. Further result that is the nontraditional oil ＆ gas project economic evaluation is obtained likewise.