经济增长与环境污染的VAR模型分析——基于山西的实证研究

The VAR Model Analysis on the Relationship between Economic Growth and Environmental Pollution——An Empirical Study Based on Shanxi Province

在VAR模型估计的基础上,使用广义脉冲响应函数和方差分解对山西1985～2006年经济增长与环境污染各指标间的动态影响关系进行了实证研究,结论表明,山西作为全国的能源重化工基地,确实存在着经济增长与环境污染的双向作用机制,不过环境污染对经济增长的反作用机制要弱许多;经济增长与环境污染存在着动态意义上的"倒U型"关系;同时也发现了山西经济增长与环境污染方面自身的一些特点。

On the basis of the estimation of vector auto - regression （ VAR ） model, generalized impulse response function and variance decomposition are used in this paper to analyze the dynamic relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution indicators in Shanxi province during 1985-2006. As an energy resource and heavy chemical industry base, there really exists two - way effect mechanism between economic growth and environmental pollution in Shanxi. However the reaction mechanism of environmental pollution to economic growth is much weaker. Meanwhile, there exists a dynamic inverted - U - shaped relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution. Form the empirical result, we also simultaneously found Shanxi province＇s own characteristics between economic growth and envi- ronmental pollution.