摘要
近年来中国保险市场发展快速,其中以人寿保险市场的发展最为显着,而市场营收的成长更是惊人,2005～2008年平均复合成长率是23.9%。试用灰色预测理论GM(1,1)四期预测模型以及传统的回归模式对中国保险市场的人寿险销售量进行预测。研究发现,灰色预测模式适用于中国人寿险市场的预测,且以四期建构为最准确,结果的精确度均达90%以上,符合灰色理论强调少数据、小样本的预测特性;且GM(1,1)四期预测模型精确度高于传统的回归预测模式。
In recent years Chinese life insurance market is rapidly developing and the competition is international- ization. The development of life insurance is most significant. Revenue growth of the market are even more alarming, from 2005 to 2008 the average compound growth rate is 23.9 percent. This paper tried to theoretically predicting China＇ s life insurance tumover by gray GM （1,1） with 4 period as well as traditional regression model. The paper found that gray pre- diction model for the forecasts of Chinese life insurance market is accurate, especailly for the four period model. The ac- curate degree is indeed more than 90 % in line with the gray theory emphasizing a limited number of samples; and the ac- curate level of GM （1,1） prediction model with 4 periods is higher than the traditional forecasting models.
出处
《经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第6期111-113,共3页
On Economic Problems
关键词
灰色预测
GM(1
1)
寿险市场
gray prediction model
GM （ 1,1 ）
life insurance market
