构建输入性登革热风险预警量化指标体系的研究

Construction of quantified appraisal system of imported risk of dengue fever

目的结合有关文献,筛选输入性登革热风险预警量化评价的指标,构建科学、合理、准确和量化的输入性登革热风险预警评价指标体系。方法采用德尔菲法(Delphi)设计,就指标体系的每一项指标选定专家进行征询,选定的专家按重要性分值1、3、5分对评价指标进行评价。结果剔除了59项三级指标要求中的9项,保留了50项(占84.7%);专家对整体《评价表》的重要性评价均值为3.50,一级指标要求为3.85,二级指标要求为3.56,三级指标要求为3.44,显示《评价表》的重要性较高,专家的意见集中程度较好;专家对总体指标意见的协调系数为0.33(P<0.05),对一级指标意见的协调系数为0.56(P<0.05),对二级指标意见的协调系数为0.48(P<0.05),对三级指标意见的协调系数为0.31(P<0.05),本次研究的专家意见协调程度较好。结论该评价表的构建可为输入性登革热的监测提供科学、合理、准确和量化的评价工具。

Objective To select the indexes from the related literatures to form an appraising table sheet, and to provide the surveillance of imported dengue fever with a scientific, useful, easy operating and quantified appraising tool. Methods Delphi model was adopted to concentrate the advices of the experts specializing in the field of dengue fever. The engaged experts scaled all of the indexes, and gave the importance value to each index by the importance grade value of 5, 3, and 1. Results According to the advices of the experts, 9 indexes were eliminated from the 59 given third grade indexes, and 50 （84. 7% ） of them were retained. The experts put the importance of the average weight value of 3.50 to the whole appraising table sheet, 3.85 to the first grade indexes, 3.56 to the second grade indexes, and 3. 44 to the third grade indexes. The harmony coefficient on the indexes system was 0.33 （P 〈 0.05）, and 0.56 （P 〈 0.05） to the first grade indexes, 0.48（ P 〈 0.05） to the second grade indexes and 0.31 （P〈 0.05） to the third grade indexes. Conclusions Construction of this appraising table tool for the surveilance a scientific, useful, easy operating and quantified appraising tool for the surveillance of imported dengue fever.