基于Origin7.5软件的地区生态足迹预测分析

Prediction and analysis of regional ecological footprint based on the software Origin 7.5

利用生态足迹模型计算黔东南州1997～2006年人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力,并运用Origin7.5软件对黔东南州1997～2006年人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力进行拟合分析,在此基础上对黔东南州2008～2020年人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力进行预测。预测结果表明:黔东南州人均生态足迹由2008年的1.227943 hm2升至2020年的2.458619 hm2,年均增长率达到8.35%,增长速度较快;人均生态承载力从2008年的0.957124 hm2降至2020年的0.945817 hm2,年均下降率为1.18%,相对下降缓慢;生态赤字由2008年的0.270819 hm2扩大到2020年的1.512802 hm2,年均增长率达到38.22%,上升幅度较大。

The ecological footprint per capita and ecological capacity per capita in Qiandongnan Prefecture of Guizhou Province from 1997 to 2006 were calculated by ecological footprint model, and the fitting analysis of them were carried out by the software Origin 7.5, as well the ecological footprint and ecological capacity per capita of Qiandongnan Prefecture from 2008 to 2020 were predicted. The results showed that the ecological footprint per capita of Qiandongnan Prefecture would be increased from 1.227943 hm^2 in 2008 to 2.458619 hm^2 in 2020, the average annual increasing rate was fast with 8.35%. The ecological capacity per capita would be decreased from 0.957124 hm^2 in 2008 to 0.945817 hm^2 in 2020, and the average annual decreasing rate was relatively slow with 1.18%. Moreover, the ecological deficit would be enhanced from 0.270819 hm^2 in 2008 to 1.512802 hm^2 in 2020, and the average annual increase rate had higher range of 38.22%.