河北省近四十年(1965-2005)气温和降水变化特征分析

An analysis on variation characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Hebei Province during 1965-2005

根据1965-2005年河北省85个地面气象站的气温和降水资料,利用线性回归和M-K检验方法,分析了河北省近41年的气温和降水变化特征。结果表明:河北省年平均温度、平均最高温度和平均最低温度均表现出不同程度的升高趋势,其中最低温度升温倾向率最大。并在90年代初的增温过程是一次突变。四个季节的升温倾向率中冬季最大,温度升高最快,其次是春季,秋季比春季略低,夏季的最低。平均气温和最高气温增加明显的地区集中在北部和东部地区,最低气温增温分布在全省大部地区。降水虽然在90年代后期经历了一次较大幅度的下降过程,但总体上其下降的趋势并不明显,基本处于稳中有降,但没有通过0.05信度的显著性检验。空间上,降水变化主要集中在东部和沿海地区。汛期降水量变化情况与年降水变化基本一致,干旱期的降水则表现出微弱的上升趋势。

Based on the 85 weather stations＇data, the variation characteristics of temperature and precipitation in Hebei Province during 1965 -2005 were analyzed by using liner regression and M -K checking methods. The results showed that the annual mean temperature, minimum and maximum temperature were increased with different extents, and the minimum temperature enhanced much more. It was a jump for temperature increase in the beginning of 1990S. Of the four seasons, temperature raised the most in winter, and the spring was the second. The most obvious area for mean annual and maximum temperature increase was focused on northern and eastern parts of Hebei Province, and the increase of the minimum temperature appeared in the most part ofHebei Province. Precipitation had no obvious decreasing trends, though there was a heavy decrease at the end of 1990S, and its variation was mainly in the eastern and coastal areas. The precipitation change trend of rainy season （from June to Sep. ） was with the annual rainfall, but there was a slight increase of precipitation in the dry sea- son （from Oct. to May）.