我国经常项目收支的演变趋势、结构分解及其原因与对策分析

Analysis on The Evolution Trend and Structure Decomposition of China′s Current Balance and Its Cause and Countermeasures

自从20世纪90年代中期以来我国经常项目账户持续出现顺差,尤其是2001年以来顺差额更是飞速增长。本文在对我国经常项目收支进行结构分解的基础上,从资金流动、汇率与宏观经济波动、储蓄-投资缺口以及国际产业转移的角度分析我国经常项目顺差飞速增长的直接原因和深层根源。最后,在对我国经常项目收支演变趋势进行预测的基础上提出相关的战略调整与政策选择。

China′s current account balance has changed into a pattern of persistent surplus since the mid-1990s, and the surplus of CA increased very quickly since 2001.This paper analyzed the direct cause of CA surplus′ high-speed growth from the point of view of capital flow, RMB exchange rate and macroeconomic fluctuation, the gap of saving-investment and the international industry transfer on the base of decompositon of the current account structure, and proposed the related strategic adjustment and policy choices.