中国新材料产业技术进步对产出增长贡献的分析

Analysis of the Contribution of Technology Improvement to Output Growth of the New Material Industry in China

本文通过模型观察和研究36家新材料上市公司2002-2007年数据,解释和分析2002-2007年间新材料产业总产出及其增长是如何决定的。通过分析可知,中国新材料行业,特别是上市企业,资本量提高迅速,但在目前还没有取得与资本规模增长幅度相一致的产出增长率。在2002年至2005年期间,还发生随着产出规模的扩大,新材料产业的技术进步贡献率却不断降低的现象。本文认为,这是中国新材料产业发展中一个危险的信号。说明大量新材料上市企业采用的是购并等外延式的产业扩张模式,在短时间内投入了大量的资本,扩展了行业规模,真正依赖技术进步的内涵式发展的模式十分少见。因此,要加大科技进步对产出的贡献,必须通过改革新材料产业的投融资机制,严格控制资源性开采量,切实转变新材料产业增长方式。

this article explains and analyses the gross output and increase of new material industry from 2002 -2007 via models and data of 36 listed companies. Through the analysis, we know that Chinese new material industry especially the listed companies＇capital increases rapidly but the growth rate of output is not compatible with capital amplification at the moment. From 2002 to 2005, the contribution rate of new material industry even decreased with the output increased. I believe this is the signal to indicate risks in Chinese new material industry, which tells us that the capital and industry scale of the listed companies in new material industry increase within a short period only through the merger but not the technology improvement. The conclusion is that in order to make the technology improvement play an important role in output increase, the following steps can be taken： innovating of the investment and financing system; tightly controlling the quantity of exploitation; and changing over the mode of new material industry increase.