政府投资决策的多目标均衡模型应用研究——基于上海世博会投入产出效益的预测分析

A Study on Government Investment Decision and Evaluation with Multi-objective Programming Model——Empirical Analysis of optimizing Input-output Benefit Based on Shanghai EXPO

在政府投资决策项目中,往往存在一些公益性、社会性的约束条件,如何在多元目标条件下求解一个符合多方约束条件的均衡解,文章以上海世博会投资决策资料为样板,运用多目标均衡模型优化求解。研究结果显示:上海世博会政府投资直接收益基本平衡,间接引致收益辐射长三角地区及全国,后续循环收益形成人流、物流、能流、信息流的和谐流动,运用循环经济中的"3R原则"是优化世博会投入产出收益的最佳途径。

There are some contradictory restraints in the government investment projects. Under these multiple objectives and restraints, it＇s important to find a satisfied solution according to the priority of goals. This paper took Shanghai EXPO as the context. It optimized the investment income with multiple objective programming. It＇s concluded that Shanghai EXPO will get a balance between direct investments and income, and it will result the inestimable indirect income in surrounding areas. EXPO park construction and investment should follow the 3R principle of cyclical economy to avoid the dilemma of large ber of idle infrastructure and investment for the further development in the future.