基于面板数据的中国菲利普斯曲线再估计

Reestimate China's Philips Curve Using Panel Data Model

本文阐释了产出缺口对通货膨胀影响的经济学机理,说明了中国时间序列菲利普斯曲线不存在的经济背景、模型设定和统计数据原因,提出利用省级面板数据对中国菲利普斯曲线进行再估计。1978-2006年的实证研究表明,基于面板数据的菲利普斯曲线是成立的:产出缺口对通货膨胀的线性影响显著,自发性通货膨胀率为2.8%,上期通货膨胀对本期的影响系数为0.44,产出缺口对通货膨胀影响的弹性系数为0.18。

This paper explains the economical mechanism between production gap and inflation, interprets the economic background, model specification and statistical data reason for the inexistence of china＇s philips curve. Furthermore, this paper use provinces＇ panel data to re.estimate china＇s philips curve,and empirical results uphold the existences of philips curve for panel data： the production gap is significant with elasticity coefficient 0. 18, the spontaneity inflation is 2. 8 percent, and the influence coefficient of previous inflation is 0. 44.