基于Granger因果检验的新疆产业结构变动与经济增长关系分析

Analysis on Granger Causality Test between the Adjustments of Industrial Structure and Economic Growth in Xinjiang

文章应用协整和格兰杰因果检验等经济计量分析方法,对新疆1978～2006年的产业结构变动与经济增长的关系进行了分析,并利用宏观经济模型测算了产业变动对新疆经济增长的贡献。实证分析结果表明:产业结构变动促进了经济增长,而经济增长对产业结构变动没有显著影响。产业结构变动对经济增长的贡献水平还较低。需要制订有效的产业政策优化调整产业结构,以促进新疆经济的快速发展。

Using the Granger causality test and linear economic models, this paper analyzed the relationship between the adjustment of Xinjiang＇s industrial structure and economic growth in the past 29 years. The Granger causality test shows that the adjustment of industrial structure is the important reason of real economic growth, but the economic growth has no obvious effect on the adjustment of industrial structure. The secondary industry have a greater contribution to economic growth, but the adjustment of industrial structure have a poor contribution to economic growth The industrial policy of the industrial structure adjustment and optimization is needed.