摘要
为探讨农作物区域产量保险费率厘定问题,文章利用湖北荆州市1991～2007年县级水稻单产数据,通过建立分层贝叶斯模型,并运用WinBUGS软件进行Gibbs抽样,得出荆州各县市历年水稻单产拟合数据、2008年预测值及其20000个马尔可夫蒙特卡罗(MCMC)模拟值,然后据此厘定各县市水稻区域产量保险费率。结果表明,模型预测能力良好,费率厘定结果有参考价值。
With rice yield data at county level of Jingzhou City Hubei Province from 1991 to 2007, the article models rice yield per hectare in past years and gets its prediction of year 2008 and 20,000 MCMC values by Hierarchical Bayesian Model and WinBUGS software, according to which it rates rice yield insurance in each county. It is found that Hierarchical Bayesian model is good at predicting the temporal trend and that the result of rating rice yield insurance premium is of great reference.
出处
《生态经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2009年第7期40-42,共3页
Ecological Economy
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(70673027)
关键词
分层贝叶斯模型
区域产量保险
MOMC
费率厘定
Hierarchical Bayesian Mode
area yield insurance
Markov Chain Monte Carlo
rate-making
