情景规划应对不确定性的思路研究

Study on Thoughts of Scenario Planning Coping to Uncertainty

在对现有文献与案例进行分析的基础上,对情景规划应对不确定性的基本思路进行了研究。研究表明,采用动态渐进的思维和分阶段决策是情景规划应对不确定性的基本思路,围绕这两点,用确定的情景代替不确定的未来、密切关注早期信号的变化等对应对不确定性大有裨益。

Through analyzing the existing literatures and cases,this paper studies the basic thoughts of scenario planning coping to uncertainty. And it indicates that dynamic thought and grading decision are the basic thoughts of scenario planning coping to uncertainty, and puts forward other important thoughts, such as using certain scenarios replace uncertain future, paying attention to early signal, etc.