香港人民币化的成因分析

Empirical Analysis on the Causes of RMB-ization in HongKong

近年来,随着我国经济的快速发展和人民币国际地位的提高,人民币替代港币的人民币化现象越来越严重。对这一现象的成因分析,国内学者研究不多。本文在定性分析的基础上,运用单位根、协整及误差修正模型等检验方法对此进行实证分析。结果表明,无论是长期还是短期,两地贸易总额、人民币预期汇率变动率对香港人民币化有较大的影响,而我国的真实GDP与两地利差对其只有长期影响,不存在短期影响。

In recent years, with rapid development of economy in China and advancement of the international position of RMB, the phenomenon of RMB-ization that RMB substitutes for HongKong Dollars is more and more serious. Domestic research on the causes of RMB-ization in HongKong is less. On the basis of qualitative analysis, this paper analyzes it through using empirical means of ADF, Cointegration and ECM. The result indicates that trade total and inflation differential have an effect on RMB-ization in HongKong whether long term or short term. Real GDP and interest differential influence it none but long term.