摘要
吴淞口水域通航密度大,船舶分流复杂,且交通事故易发。有效评估其交通危险性,以保障船舶安全通航,具有重大的现实意义。基于船舶流量实测数据,经统计分析,并借助VB编程实现船舶交通模拟,对该水域的交通风险进行评估,结果证实该水域的交通危险性随潮汐的变化趋势呈马鞍形曲线,且存在3个主要的高危险区,与船舶交通事故的发生规律保持一致。试验证明:依据实测船舶流量数据模拟的方法可对特定水域的危险性进行全方位的评价。
Because of high traffic density and complex traffic flow, ship accidents happen frequently in Wusongkou water area. Effectively evaluating traffic risks in this area is of great practical significance for navigation safety of ships. Based on statistics of the traffic flow, the marine traffic is simulated with the VB programming to evaluate the risks in the water area. It is confirmed that the traffic risks in the water area vary with tides in a saddle-shaped curve and there are three major high-risk regions in the water. Tests prove that a more scientific and objective evalu ation of traffic risks in a specified water area can he obtained by using simulation method of traffic flow based on traffic flow statistics.
出处
《中国航海》
CSCD
北大核心
2009年第2期62-67,97,共7页
Navigation of China
基金
上海市教育委员会科研项目资助(08YZ107)
上海市重点学科建设项目资助(S30602)
关键词
水路运输
船舶
受限水域
危险度
评估
模拟
waterway transportation
ship
restricted water area
risk
evaluation
simulation
