贝叶斯方法在某型防空导弹武器系统可靠性评估中的应用

Bayesian Network Application to Reliability Evaluation of Missile Weapon Systems

提出采用贝叶斯(Bayes)方法分析防空导弹武器系统的可靠性问题。首先对各种不同分布类型的单元进行Bayes可靠性分析,利用某型防空导弹武器系统的试验信息构造系统可靠性验前分布,再利用Bayes定理和系统试验信息更新系统可靠性的验前分布得到验后分布,最后对系统可靠性进行评估。仿真算例说明了评估方法的合理性。

A Bayesian network approach applied to reliability evaluation of missile weapon systems was proposed. First, Bayesian reliability for consonants with various distribution types was analyzed. Then, posterior distribution of system distribution was obtained through analysis of prior testing distribu- tion of reliability of test information structure of one air defense missile weapon system and prior distribu- tion of system reliability updated with system reliability information based on Bayes theorem. Finally, e- valuation of the reliability of weapon system was given and the simulation example shows that the proposed method is reasonable.