对汇率不完全传递的理论综述

Literature Review about Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-through

传统的宏观经济学认为两国之间购买力平价理论成立,但事实证明名义汇率的贬值在许多工业化国家对进口价格和消费者价格的影响不大,而且近二十年来汇率传递程度仍在下降。本文简单归纳了汇率不完全传递的原因和影响因素。理解汇率传递的影响因素和发展趋势对指导针对汇率波动的货币政策调整具有重要的政策含义。

Economists have traditionally made the simplified assumption that the purchasing power parity condition （PPP） holds. Empirically, however, this assumption has found little support in general. Evidences are found that sizeable depreciations of the nominal exchange rate exert fairly small effects on importing prices and consumer prices across a wide set of industrial countries, and these effects have declined over the past two decades. An extensive the- oretical literature has identified various explanations why exchange rate pass-through to import and consumer prices is incomplete. Understanding the determinants and declining trend of exchange rate pass-through to prices is critical from a policy perspective in order to adjust the monetary policy rules in response to exchange rate fluctuation.