江苏人口老龄化趋势及社会养老保险研究

Studies of Ageing Tendency of Population and Social Security Situation in Jiangsu Province

利用2005年1％人口抽样调查资料，预测了2010—2050年江苏人口数量、构成及变动趋势，研究了江苏人口老龄化和社会保险状态。如果未来生育、死亡率维持不变，江苏将面临严重的人口老龄化。2025、2035年65岁老年人口将超过20％、30％。江苏人口老龄化将分3个阶段。2010年前是老年人口稳定增长阶段，2040年后是稳定少变阶段，其间是老年人口急剧增长阶段。整个21世纪江苏劳动力数量将出现稳定下降趋势，伴随着中老年劳动力先增后降现象。严重的老龄化增加了社会保障的支出和江苏财政支出，进一步影响地区投资和经济发展。

Based on the 1% sample survey of 2005,this paper predicts the quantity,structure and variation tendency of population from 2010 to 2050 in Jiangsu province,China.Then it studies the ageing tendency of population and social security situation in Jiangsu province.It proposes that severe ageing tendency will emerge in Jiangsu province if the sterilization situation and death rate keep unchangeable.In 2025 and 2035 the number of the elder of 65 years old will exceed 20% and 30% of the total number of population.There are three phases pertaining to ageing tendency in Jiangsu province.Before 2010,it is estimated that the stable increase of the aged population will occur.It is predicted that the period between 2010 and 2040 will be the phase of rapid increase of the grey population.After 2040,it is said that a stable and unchangeable phase will be seen.The quantity of labor force will decrease steadily in the 21st century with the initial increase and the following decrease of the middle-aged and the aged population.The tendency of the aged will increase the expenditure on social security and the finance in Jiangsu province.Therefore,such situation will have impact on the economic development and investment in this area.