金融危机的货币政策反应

Macroeconomic Tightening and Monetary Policy Orientation from the Perspective of Financial Crisis

自20世纪90年代以来,我国已经历两次由国际金融危机所引发的宏观经济紧缩,这表明外源性冲击已成为影响国内经济增长的重要制约因素。实证研究表明,在当前国内经济受到外部冲击而出现紧缩时,货币政策对消费和投资的影响依然显著,但在效果上存在差异。降低利率能长期稳定提高消费增长;而货币供应量扩张仅在五个季度内能显著刺激投资增长,长期基本无效。因此,本文认为现阶段在与财政政策和产业政策配合拉动内需时,应将带动国内消费增长作为货币政策长期任务,而将提高国内投资作为短期目标。

Since 1990s, China has experienced two macmeconornic tightening which are triggered by the international financial crises. The fact indicates that exogenous shocks affecting the domestic economy growth have become important constraints to the Chinese domestic economic growth. Empirical study shows that monetary policy will continue to have a significant impact on consumption and investment during the recession in domestic economic, but the effects are difference. Lower interest rates can steadily increase the growth in consumption in the long run; the expansion of money supply can stimulate investment growth only in five quarters, but long- term is void. Therefore, at this stage complying with the fiscal policy and industrial policy to stimulate domestic demand, the monetary policy should be to promote the growth of consumption as the longterm task, and increase investment as the shortterm objectives.